Every memory forecast published in the last twelve months has been wrong in the same direction: too low. IDC, TrendForce, and Bank of America have each revised DRAM and NAND demand estimates upward multiple times since early 2025, and the pattern is not noise — it is a structural failure of forecasting methodology colliding with a demand curve that refuses to plateau.

The Forecasts Keep Missing In One Direction

The current numbers are already staggering. IDC now expects 2026 DRAM supply growth of only 16% year-on-year, with NAND supply growth at just 17%, both well below the 20-30% historical norms that defined the post-2018 memory market. HBM demand alone is projected to grow 70% year-over-year in 2026, with HBM consuming 23% of total DRAM wafer output, up from 19% the year before. Bank of America forecasts DRAM revenue surging 51% year-over-year and NAND 45%, with ASPs rising 33% and 26% respectively.