https://k4i.com/tags/ai-supercycle/ Recent content in AI Supercycle on k4i.com Hugo en-us Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://k4i.com/the-ai-supercycle-why-investors-still-thinking-in-2000-terms-are-reading-the-wrong-chart/ Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000 https://k4i.com/the-ai-supercycle-why-investors-still-thinking-in-2000-terms-are-reading-the-wrong-chart/ <p>Every AI capex chart published this year gets laid over the same overlay: 1999-2000. Capex-to-sales ratios, VC concentration, IPO froth, Fed warnings — the comparison is everywhere, and it is not baseless. But it is incomplete in a way that matters, because it measures this cycle using the only historical yardstick available and assumes the yardstick still applies.</p> <h2 id="the-comparison-investors-keep-reaching-for">The Comparison Investors Keep Reaching For</h2> <p>The parallels are real and worth taking seriously. Big Tech&rsquo;s combined AI capex is expected to reach $650-700 billion in 2026, and one Wells Fargo analysis noted this drove 42% of Q1 GDP growth while representing 2.4% of total US GDP — a figure some analysts expect to surpass dot-com-era peaks by Q4 2026. MIT research found that 95% of organizations report zero measurable return on their GenAI investments so far, and the ratio of infrastructure spending to actual AI software revenue runs close to twenty-to-one. Morgan Stanley has pointed out that capex-to-sales ratios are on track to exceed the 32% peak hit at the top of the dot-com bubble.</p>