Within a 48-hour window ending May 11, the United States publicly disclosed the arrival of a nuclear ballistic missile submarine at Gibraltar, Iran’s Navy commander officially confirmed Ghadir-class midget submarine deployments inside the Strait of Hormuz, and the ceasefire framework between Washington and Tehran publicly collapsed. These three events are not coincidental. They represent a coordinated, if fragile, exchange of deterrence signals between two parties that have lost the surface war and are now contesting the underwater domain.