JPMorgan’s trading desk put out its scenario grid for Wednesday’s July consumer price index, and the number that matters is not the base case. It is 0.25%, because that is where the sign of the expected S&P 500 move changes, and consensus sits five basis points below it.

The grid runs five buckets on core month-over-month. Above 0.30%, assigned a 5% probability, the desk sees the index down 1.5% to 2.5%. Between 0.25% and 0.30%, at 25% probability, down 0.5% to 1.25%. Between 0.20% and 0.25%, the modal outcome at 40%, up 0.25% to 0.75%. Between 0.15% and 0.20%, at 25%, up 0.5% to 1%. Below 0.15%, at 5%, up 1% to 2%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline CPI to rise 0.1% on the month, taking the twelve-month rate to 3.4%, with core up 0.2% and 2.5% year over year.

The May PCE report lands Thursday, and a week ago it would have been a non-event. The market’s working assumption was that the Fed would look through an energy-driven inflation spike caused by the Strait of Hormuz disruption, treat it as a supply shock, and keep its eyes on the back half of the year. That assumption is gone. Kevin Warsh took it apart at his first FOMC meeting on June 17, and the print now arrives into a reaction function that has been quietly rewired.

The May Consumer Price Index lands Wednesday, June 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and the only number that matters is the gap to consensus, not the level. That distinction is the whole trade. April printed 3.8 percent headline and 2.8 percent core year over year, an acceleration from March’s 3.3 percent, and the market enters the print already braced for more — prediction markets are pricing roughly a 60 percent chance that May headline clears 4.2 percent, and the University of Michigan’s consumer survey shows inflation expectations near 4.8 percent. When the bar is set that high, a hot number is partly discounted and a soft one carries the larger surprise. The setup is asymmetric, and not in the bulls’ favor.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge confirmed on May 28 what the trend has been saying for months: core PCE rose to 3.3% year-over-year in April, up from 3.2% in March, up from 3.0% in February. No shock, no surprise — just another step in the wrong direction. For quantum computing stocks, which are speculative, unprofitable, and priced entirely on long-dated future cash flows, this is not a neutral data point. It is another brick in the wall bearing down on their valuations.