JPMorgan’s trading desk put out its scenario grid for Wednesday’s July consumer price index, and the number that matters is not the base case. It is 0.25%, because that is where the sign of the expected S&P 500 move changes, and consensus sits five basis points below it.

The grid runs five buckets on core month-over-month. Above 0.30%, assigned a 5% probability, the desk sees the index down 1.5% to 2.5%. Between 0.25% and 0.30%, at 25% probability, down 0.5% to 1.25%. Between 0.20% and 0.25%, the modal outcome at 40%, up 0.25% to 0.75%. Between 0.15% and 0.20%, at 25%, up 0.5% to 1%. Below 0.15%, at 5%, up 1% to 2%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline CPI to rise 0.1% on the month, taking the twelve-month rate to 3.4%, with core up 0.2% and 2.5% year over year.

The June employment report landed well short of expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June, against a Dow Jones consensus of 115,000 and a range of Wall Street estimates that ran as high as 180,000 from more bullish shops like RSM. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent, a move that would ordinarily read as a positive but instead is consistent with people leaving the labor force rather than a genuine acceleration in hiring.