Iran’s latest peace proposal — which defers nuclear negotiations entirely and offers only to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a U.S. blockade lift and a permanent truce — was rejected by Trump over the weekend. Iran’s foreign minister called it aimed at “the permanent end” of the war. Trump said he could not imagine it being acceptable. Pakistan, which has served as the mediating channel throughout, has stood down its security apparatus in Islamabad, signaling that no talks are imminent. The stalemate is public. What matters for intelligence analysis is what the stalemate reveals about the Iranian decision-making structure.