The Belt and Road Initiative was declared mature, complete, and even winding down in some Western coverage over the past several years. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan does not agree. The BRI retains a central role in the plan’s vision of how China builds and controls the global supply chains it depends on.

The 15th FYP frames supply chain strategy in terms of vertical integration and PRC control — not just participation in global trade flows, but ownership of the infrastructure, logistics, financing, and standards that govern them. The BRI is the primary vehicle for building that control offshore.

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan uses a familiar approach for testing sensitive economic reforms: pilot zones. Rather than rolling out changes to the entire economy at once — which creates political and financial risk — the PRC government designates specific provinces or cities to experiment with new rules, then expands what works.

Three cities and provinces carry the most weight in the 15th FYP’s economic pilot agenda.

Hainan is being used to test manufacturing incentives designed to counter the offshoring trend — duty-free import of raw materials and components for processing and re-export. It also serves as a pilot for services trade opening, blockchain applications, and aerospace launch site development. Hainan’s special status allows policy experiments that would face more resistance if applied nationally.