Two of the three catalysts that will set next week’s tape are dated and certain. The third — the one that actually settles whether June 5’s selloff was noise or a regime change — is not on the calendar until late August. That asymmetry is the whole story. The week ahead can move the market hard without resolving the question underneath it.

May CPI — Wednesday, June 10, 8:30 a.m. ET

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the May Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. It is the first inflation read since strong jobs data drove the rate-repricing selloff, which makes it the pivot, not a footnote. April came in at 3.8 percent headline and 2.8 percent core year over year, a third consecutive firm print, and the market enters Wednesday with the Fed positioned hawkish and easing odds thin. A hot number extends the rate-driven derating that began on the jobs report; a soft one is the fast track back toward the highs. There is no neutral outcome here — the print either confirms the bond market’s repricing or breaks it, and equities trade off the two-year yield’s reaction within minutes.