Mohammed bin Salman called Donald Trump twice on Thursday and asked for American strikes on Houthi positions. He was refused. Washington offered intelligence sharing and targeting support, and sent the CENTCOM commander to the kingdom for coordination talks rather than a strike package.

By Friday the request was academic. The Houthis took Mokha, pushed south through Dhubab, and put fighters on Mayyun, the volcanic island sitting in the channel that carries traffic through the strait. Yemeni government forces withdrew. Saudi aircraft bombed the airport at Mokha after the city had already fallen, which says most of what needs saying about the sequencing.

Sudan’s relationship with Russia has always been defined more by resource extraction and opportunistic arms dealing than by the kind of structured security partnership Moscow built in CAR or Mali. It is also the case that has most clearly illustrated the sanctions-evasion function of Russia’s African operations — and the extent to which the continent’s conflicts have become arenas for Russian commercial interests dressed up as strategic engagement.

The foundation was laid in 2017, when then-President Omar al-Bashir struck a series of deals with Moscow that opened Sudan to Wagner-linked commercial activity. Those firms moved into gold mining, working alongside elements of Sudan’s security forces in arrangements that were profitable for both sides and opaque to outside scrutiny. In 2022, Wagner was implicated in a scheme that involved smuggling Sudanese gold to Russia — providing hard currency at a moment when Western sanctions were beginning to bite.